Preventive Priorities Survey 2014 Essay Example for Free

Preventive Priorities Survey 2014 Essay In this article the author has written about a survey conducted by The Center for Preventive Action which is Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) that assess the current and all the possible conflicts which can occur in the coming years of US and how they can influence U.S. interests . The purpose of PPS is to help the U.S. policymaking community primarily to prevent conflicts and all the incentives that can erupt a conflict . In the conflict preventive survey there are many possible sources of instability and conflict around the world that the United States should try to avoid. Predicting which conflicts are more likely to occur and can pose a greater threat to U.S. interests than others helps to decide where to focus attention and resources. PPS is a qualitative evaluation that uses the informed judgement of the experts to check all the possible threats and risks that can destroy US interests by erupting a conflict. To help the experts with their estimations and cope up with the situation , the survey offered general guidelines to check the relative probability and impact of potential contingencies which a US could face. These contingencies were categorized in different levels as high , moderate and low based on their chance of occurring and their intensity of impact on US interests. The PPS did not include the potential economic or financial crises or any natural calamity or environmental problems , PPS is primarily concerned with the discrete geopolitical contingencies .Also the PPS represents the expert’s opinion at the time the survey was conducted. Risk assessments can change rapidly and oftenly. The results, therefore, could be quite different after several months. There is a certain methodology to carry out this survey which the center for preventive actions performs in different stages of which first stage is soliciting the PPS contingencies in which CPA used a variety of social media platforms as well as its blog on CFR.org to seek suggestions for contingencies to include in the 2014 survey. With the help of the Council on Foreign Relations’, CPA extracted hundreds of suggestions into thirty contingencies considering both ,possibility to occur over the next twelve months and potentially harmful to U.S. interests. The nest stage was polling of experts in which the survey was sent to more than 1200 government officials ,foreign policy experts and academics to evaluate the likelihood and poteintial impact of each contingency on US inetrest  according to the definite criteria. Ultimately the most popular suggestions were included in the survey. Then comes the final stage that is categorizing the contingencies in which the survey results were uniformly scored and contingencies were sorted into one of three preventive priority tiers in accordance to their placement in the risk assessmemnt matrix. There are three tiers in assessing the contingencies in PPS . In Tier 1 Contingencies judged high preventive priorities for U.S. policymakers because in tier 1 those contingencies were included which had a severe impact on US interests and their chance to occur was moderate like the Syrian civil war ,a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure ,threat of military strikes against Iran , a mass casualty terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland ,a severe North Korean crisis caused by a military provocation, internal political instability, or threatening nuclear weapons/ ICBM-related activities. Then comes the contingencies which had moderate impact but high likelihood such as growing violence and instability in Afghanistan resulting from the drawdown of coalition forces and/or contested national elections ,increasing internal violence and political instability in Pakistan ,strengthening of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula resulting from continued political instability in Yemen and/or backlash from U.S. counterterrorism operations , civil war in Iraq ,growing political instability and civil violence in Jordan triggered by spillover from the Syrian civil war. In Tier 2 Contingencies judged mid-level preventive priorities for U.S. policymakers as those contingencies are includedin tier 2 which had moderate effects and moderate chance to occur such as deterioration of the political situation in Egypt, increased sectarian violence and political instability in Lebanon ,continuing conflict in Somalia, political instability and growing militancy in Libya ,drug-related violence in Mexico, a severe Indo-Pakistani military confrontation due to Kashmir. Also there were contingencies which had high impact and low likelihood which are an armed confrontation in the East China Sea between China and Japan ,an armed confrontation in the South China Sea between China and Southeast Asian plaintiff to disputed mari- time areas. It also includes contingencies with low effect on US and high likelihood of occurrence like increasing sectarian violence and political instability in Nigeria ,violence and risk of mass killing in the Central African Republic . In Tier 3 Contingencies judged low preventive priorities for U.S.  policymakers as it included those contingencies which had moderate effect on US interests and their chance of occurrence was low such as a Sino-Indian clash .it also included contingencies with low impact and moderate likelihood which were destabilization of Mali, growing popular unrest and political instability in Sudan , military conflict between Sudan and South Sudan due to border resource disputes ,conflict in the Kurdish- dominated regions of Turkey and the Middle East , growing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo , internal violence in Bangladesh surrounding the general elections. Tier 3 also included contingencies with low impact and low likelihood such as political crisis in Venezuela leading to civil violence and potential regional instability , an outbreak of military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan . So this survey played a vital role to find out and take preventive measures for all t he current and upcoming conflicts which could have any adverse effect on US interests. This survey helped the experts to assess the contingencies and suggest those to CPA which could adversely influence US so the policymakers then worked according to the intensity of the contingencies suggested . PPS is very helpful for the center of preventive action to check the impact and likelihood of the contingencies which could occur and they carried out all their activities according to the strength of the contingencies which they measured on the risk assessing matrix and placed them in different tiers and took precautionary measures to protect the US interests and security.

Childrens Literature and the Holocaust Essay -- essays research papers

Children’s Literature and the Holocaust During the 1940’s Jewish Europeans experienced an unthinkable and atrocious collective trauma. In her work â€Å"Survivor-Parents and Their Children† taken from the anthology Generations of the Holocaust, Judith S. Kestenberg has argued that regardless of location, the effects of the Holocaust are felt on survivors parenting. The children of survivors receive a secondary traumatic impact by being forced to deal with the impact the Holocaust had directly on their parents. The novel Briar Rose by Jane Yolen is an example of a Holocaust survivor sharing her experiences through a fictionalized tale made for young adults. Some may believe that a traditional, educationally focused history source or a first hand account from a survivor is the best way to inform children about the Holocaust. It has been discovered through research of survivors and their families that first hand accounts passed down from parent to child are traumatizing. However, history books are ineffecti ve because people are turned into statistics, thereby trivializing the terror of the Holocaust. This essay argues that a fictional style of storytelling or literature is the best way to inform children and adolescents about the Holocaust. Witnessing is important, however, there is no educational value in traumatizing children; it is better to use literature that explains the Holocaust at a level children and young adults can handle. Milton Meltzer, author of Never forget: The Jews of the Holocaust discusses the importance of witnessing: â€Å"To forget what we know would not be human. To remember (it) is to think of what being human means. . . Indifference is the greatest sin. . . . It can be as powerful as an action. Not to do something against evil is to participate in the evil† (Sherman 173). Meltzer gives the straightforward conclusion that people must be educated about the Holocaust because to remain silent about it is just as bad as playing a role in persecuting Jews. This conclusion also gives the rationale for teaching children about the Holocaust. But more specifically, why else may witnessing be important and what are the drawbacks of witnessing? Despite the logic and seemingly usefulness of witnessing, it can be a traumatic experience fo... ...sues at a level young adults can relate to, the characters, although emotionally provoking, are distanced enough that the young readers are not traumatized. Works Cited Eskenazi, Joe. â€Å"Historian’s WWII Book Sanitizes History for Youth.† Jewish Bulletin. 105.50 (2001). Hirsch, Marianne. "Projected Memory: Holocaust photographs in Personal and Public Fantasy" Machet, M.P. â€Å"Authenticity in Holocaust Literature For Children.† South African Journal of Library & Information Science. 66.3 (1998): 114-22. Sherman, Ursula F. â€Å"Why Would A Child Want To Read About That? The Holocaust Period in Children’s Literature.† How Much Truth Do We Tell the Children?. Ed. Betty Bacon. Minneapolis: MEP Publications, 1988. 173-184. Walter, Virginia A., and Susan F. March. â€Å"Juvenile Picture Books About the Holocaust: Extending the Definitions of Children’s Literature.† Publishing Research Quarterly. 9.3 (1993): 36-52. Generations of the Holocaust. Ed. Martin S. Bergmann and Milton E. Jucovy. New York: Basic Books, Inc., Publishers, 1982. â€Å"The Holocaust In Fiction; Naming The Unnamable; Morality In Literature.† Chronicle of Higher Education. 48.19 (2002)

Mozart: Symphony #33 in B Flat, Allegro Assai Analysis

E- Essay II Mozart: Symphony #33 In B Flat, K 319 – 1. Allegro Assai Form Analysis – Sonata Form (Time)::(Form)::(2 or 3 reasons for placing division here) EXPOSITION 0. 00::Theme 1::MELODY: Light, simple, sequencing and repetition; TEXTURE: light to suddenly heavy; DYNAMICS: Contrast from piano to Subito forte; HARMONY: Major with short minor excerpts 1:35::Bridge:: MELODY: Modulates, very short; TEXTURE:: Continues to go from light to heavy 2:05::Theme II::MELODY: New darker melody; TEXTURE: Thicker texture, more action; HARMONY: Minor and moves to Major; 2:19::CADENCE: Ends in a V to I CadenceDEVELOPMENT 2:29::Development: MELODY: Playful, thematic development of T1, passed around the orchestra; TEXTURE: Light, gradually gets thicker and very heavy; HARMONY; Major, modulates constantly in instrumental sections 3:28::CADENCE: V to I: End in Development melody 1†² RECAPITULATION :44::Theme 1::MELODY: Repeat of Theme 1; TEXTURE: Almost identical to beginning HARMON Y: Major with short Minor Excerpts 5:16::Bridge::MELODY: Repeat of Bride 1; TEXTURE: Light to Heavy contrast 5:47::Theme II::Melody: Repeat of Theme II; TEXTURE: Continues to go from Light to Heavy 5:57::Closing Theme: MELODY: New Material Based on end of Theme II; Texture Similar Textures with contrast from light to heavy ending in light 6:22:: Final Cadenza Ending in a Major key transition from V to IThis Piece by Mozart is one of 41 that he wrote and is a Prime example of typical Sonata Form. I thought this was interesting when I found out how â€Å"correct† this piece was in following the form because of Mozart's Background. Knowing of his childish innovative nature I would have predicted a slight distancing from the normal form. But aspects within the piece such as the bridge constantly being traded between parts and modulating helps show Mozart's struggle with himself and his employers.Mozart's dedication to his music is what kept him going but restrained him at the sam e time, for he knew of his talents. This can be seen with the constant sudden switching between light and peaceful melodies to sudden heavy and almost forceful textures of the same melody. This really can let one see the internal struggle he had between his music and the outside world, and both the peace and stress it caused him.

What Makes Reconstructive Surgery - 1936 Words

Reconstructive surgery has been changing the world from celebrities, to everyday people, from young to old, and from cosmetic to emergency. â€Å"According to statistics released by the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS), 14.6 million cosmetic plastic surgery procedures, including both minimally-invasive and surgical, were performed in the United States in 2012. In addition, 5.6 million reconstructive plastic surgery procedures were performed last year† (â€Å"14.6 Million Cosmetic Plastic Surgery Procedures Performed in 2012†, 1). Millions of people in our society get reconstructive surgery, but it is looked down upon and is considered as unethical because it goes against some people’s religion and beliefs. Reconstructive surgery helps†¦show more content†¦Surgeons’ main goal is to get the person to be able to have body parts that work as close to normal as possible. Include any part of the exterior body. There are many different definit ions for reconstructive surgery one of them is that â€Å"[It] is all about repairing people and restoring functions. Reconstructive surgery is performed to repair and reshape bodily structure affected by birth defects, developmental abnormalities, trauma injuries, infections, tumors, and disease† (Reconstructive Surgery†, 2). There are many people who are born with birth defects, such as having an extra finger, missing a limb, congenital heart disease, Down syndrome, cleft lip and cleft palate, spina bifida, Edwards’ syndrome, and more. Getting reconstructive surgery can also enhance or restore outward beauty. Often times, the surgery is used to minimize the visual impact caused by a wound or defect due to trauma and the surgery itself. â€Å"A Reconstruction surgeon’s main goal is to restore the body, or the function of a specific part of the body, back to normal† (Reconstructive Surgery†, 1). Secondly, there are many different types of reconstructive surgical and non-surgical procedures, such as cosmetic surgery, microsurgery, burn surgery, craniofacial surgery, chemical peels, and injections. These different types of surgical and non-surgical procedures help improve your health or appearance. Not everyone gets reconstructive surgery to mimic celebrities and their bodies, instead, some